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Are Auckland rents sky rocketing?

February 15th, 2018.


Will rents rise in 2018?

In our opinion, the answer is yes they will. An under supply of new houses being built to meet the current demand, continued high levels of immigration, lending restrictions on investors and the new changes the Labour Government is looking to implement around rental property compliance and ring-fencing losses - are all factors that will contribute this year to seeing rents rise at higher rates than what we have in the last few years. That said, when compared to the large capital growth of house values we have experienced in Auckland over the same period, rent rises have been relatively low in comparison for Auckland.

What needs to be asked though, is Auckland’s rental shortage right now as bad as everyone is saying and are Landlords currently commanding significant increases to their asking rents when compared to a year ago. To this, I personally feel the answer is no not right now.

Trade Me data released in January shows Auckland rents have only risen by 3.9% when comparing December 2017 and December 2016. The Auckland median weekly rent was recorded at $530pw, but Trade Me Head of Property Nigel Jefferies says he wouldn’t be surprised to see this break over $550 per week by the end of the summer.

Looking at Trade Me current rental listings available in the Auckland region, over 25% have been listed for at least one month or more. While this is a very macro way of looking at it, it shows that 1 in 4 Auckland properties aren’t experiencing “a relentless stream of renters that beg, bargain and bribe their way into properties scarcer than gold” as one media article recently described.


Auckland Trade Me Data 1-208

While yes, traditionally the few weeks over Christmas can experience a considerable slump, we are now well into the typical peak period of the year for rental demand. Trade Me average number of total Auckland rental listings for the period July through to November in 2017 sat at approximately 4280 per month, this dropped to 3745 at the end of December, but since then this number has returned back to circa 4255. So when balanced out with the fact that this is normally the busiest time of year for rental demand, the numbers don’t show a massive under supply when compared to normal listing volumes of mid to late last year. Nor does Trade Me increase on asking price from a year ago show a massive jump upwards, roughly a $20 per week increase on average. Further searching showed that 38% of Trade Me total Auckland rental listings were asking $500 per week or less, and of those listings, 16% excluding apartments (or 27% including apartments) had been listed for longer than a month. The data is never perfect but it does give a window into what’s really going on in Auckland’s rental market at the moment.

Auckland Trade Me Data 2-247

The increase of costs to Landlords this year plus ongoing expected salary increases will inevitably end up contributing to rents rising to higher peaks this year than seen in previous years, as Landlords will be looking to at least partially offset some of these new overheads.

The introduction of the Healthy Homes Guarantee Bill along with the pending abolishment of letting fees will likely see more cost being worn by the landlord. Also, the fact that you can no longer charge tenants for accidental damage may see lower rental returns for some investors, but the potential softening of property prices and substantial increases in rent could help balance this out.

Realestate.co.nz’s latest information released shows that Auckland is now considered to be a buyers’ market for the first time since February 2011. With the average Auckland GV now over the $1m mark and the asking price just below this figure, the other fundamentals out at present are we are unlikely to see significant capital growth in the Auckland region in the short to medium term. It does however continue to be a solid long term investment proposition as many experts do not expect prices to drop, only to stabilise. We simply aren’t looking like the underlying supply issues will be dealt with anytime soon, as we don’t have the builders or financing to sort the issues out.

As a landlord in a turbulent property market, the ones that have ensured that their long-term strategy is solid will be the ones that can withstand and ride through the next few years and come out the other end in a stronger position. Property investment is a long game and short-term losses or gains should form part of that overall long-term strategy.

Tennille Pedersen

 

 

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